"Hype or Hope?"

 

　　輸

 

　　Editor's note:漢娜·賴德（Hannah Ryder）是總部設(shè)在北京的國(guó)際發(fā)展咨詢公司Development Reimagined的首席執(zhí)行官，曾任聯(lián)合國(guó)開(kāi)發(fā)計(jì)劃署中國(guó)地區(qū)政策和伙伴關(guān)系負(fù)責(zé)人。

 

　　When I was growing up,my parents warned me about two things:Boys,and Debt.I grew up strongly aware that I was to avoid both,and to approach them with a lot of skepticism.

 

　　在我還小的時(shí)候，父母曾告訴我要警惕兩個(gè)問(wèn)題：男人和債務(wù)。所以在成長(zhǎng)過(guò)程中，我一直堅(jiān)定地認(rèn)為對(duì)這兩者要避而遠(yuǎn)之，慎之又慎。

 

　　My husband,on the other hand,was told the opposite:search hard for a great partner,and-if you're investing in your home and future,stretch and raise as much debt as you can possibly manage.

 

　　而我丈夫?qū)W到的東西則正好相反：要努力找個(gè)好伴侶；還有，如果是為家庭和未來(lái)投資，只要能力允許，可以盡可能地舉債。

 

　　Now,happily married for 11 years,still working hard,having paid off our student loans,but still paying off our mortgage every month,I guess we found a healthy and happy balance to both partnerships and debt.

 

　　現(xiàn)在，我已經(jīng)結(jié)婚11年了，生活幸福美滿。我仍在每天努力打拼。雖然已經(jīng)還清了學(xué)生貸款，但每月還要還房貸。我想不論是在婚姻還是債務(wù)方面，我們都找到了一種合理的平衡。

 

　　But what is a healthy and happy balance to partnerships and debt for the government of an entire country like Kenya,where I was born?Should countries be cautious or should they be proactive,and stretch themselves?

 

　　但是，對(duì)于我的出生地肯尼亞這樣的國(guó)家來(lái)講，伙伴關(guān)系和債務(wù)的合理平衡是什么呢?各國(guó)處理這些問(wèn)題時(shí)，是該小心謹(jǐn)慎還是該積極主動(dòng)、不遺余力呢？

 

　　Well,here is the challenge.Africa NEEDS a great deal of new infrastructure–from trains to power stations.But African governments are not large or rich enough to pay for this by themselves–they need external help as loans from either the private sector or other international partners to at least 63bn U.S.dollars per year,according to an estimate by the African Development Bank.The continent will also face additional costs due to climate change of 20–30 billion U.S.dollars per year.Asian and Pacific countries also need more debt,their"infrastructure gap"is estimated at around 250bn U.S.dollars per year.

 

　　這就是問(wèn)題所在。從火車到發(fā)電站，非洲每年需要新建大量的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。但是，不論從規(guī)模還是財(cái)力上來(lái)看，非洲各國(guó)政府都不足以獨(dú)立支付這筆巨資，它們需要外部的幫助。根據(jù)非洲開(kāi)發(fā)銀行的數(shù)據(jù)，非洲國(guó)家每年要從私有領(lǐng)域或其他國(guó)際伙伴那里獲得至少630億美元的貸款。由于氣候變化，非洲大陸每年還將面臨200億至300億美元的額外支出。亞太國(guó)家也需要更多的貸款。他們每年約有2500億美元的“基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施缺口”。

 

　　Just like my family,in order to grow,they HAVE to take on more debt.

 

　　就像我的家庭，為了實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，這些國(guó)家不得不承擔(dān)更多的債務(wù)。

 

　　As an economist,I should know this.It's been shown in many studies that the more that countries spend on infrastructure,the more their economies grow.

 

　　作為一名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，我深以為然。許多研究表明，國(guó)家在基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施上的投入越多，其經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)也就越快。
 

　　The Chinese-built Maputo Bridge in Maputo,Mozambique,May 10,2018./Xinhua Photo

 

　　As a result,it's not the AMOUNT of debt that matters,it's the TYPE of debt that matters…In particular,is the debt going into projects that will be productive in the future?

 

　　因此，重要的不是債務(wù)的數(shù)量，而是債務(wù)的類型……尤其是，這些債務(wù)是否會(huì)用于為未來(lái)創(chuàng)造經(jīng)濟(jì)價(jià)值的項(xiàng)目之中？

 

　　That's why the Kenyan president,in a recent interview with CNN said"What would worry me is if the debt was going into…paying salaries,or electricity bills,and so on.But what we have used our debt for is to close the infrastructure gap".

 

　　這就是為什么肯尼亞總統(tǒng)在接受CNN采訪時(shí)說(shuō)：“如果債務(wù)真是用在了支付工資或電費(fèi)等諸如此類的花銷上，我就會(huì)覺(jué)著擔(dān)心?？墒聦?shí)上，我們是用債務(wù)來(lái)彌補(bǔ)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施缺口的。”

 

　　The good news is there is no shortage of productive infrastructure projects for China or others to invest in.In African countries,where over 600 million people don't have access to energy,renewable energy projects will enable young people to read and do their homework with light,enable factories to run better,without creating air pollution and climate change effects.

 

　　好消息是，有大量生產(chǎn)性基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目需要中國(guó)或其他國(guó)家來(lái)投資。在非洲國(guó)家，有超過(guò)6億人無(wú)法獲取任何能源?？稍偕茉错?xiàng)目將使青少年能夠在燈下閱讀和做功課，使工廠能夠在不污染空氣、不加劇氣候變化的前提下，實(shí)現(xiàn)更高效的運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)。

 

　　In Asia,green inner and inter-city transport are great investments–enabling more people to move around to seek jobs.In Latin America and the Caribbean,investment in tourism and transport will also deliver decent returns.

 

　　在亞洲，綠色的城內(nèi)和城際交通都是絕佳的投資項(xiàng)目，有助于提高人口的流動(dòng)性、促進(jìn)就業(yè)，甚至也可能最后將貨物派送到各個(gè)港口。在拉丁美洲和加勒比地區(qū)，旅游和交通上的投資也將帶來(lái)不俗的回報(bào)。

 

　　Are these productive investments being prioritized by China and others?Not necessarily,for three reasons.

 

　　中國(guó)和其他國(guó)家都在優(yōu)先考慮這些生產(chǎn)性投資嗎？并不一定，原因有三。

 

　　A lack of transparency can be the first reason.Governments should be conducting more due diligence of companies and companies themselves be more open.For instance,some companies–including from China–are still used for projects despite being on World Bank blacklists for corrupt practices.These blacklists may have shortcomings,but there are also opportunities for better performing companies to be chosen.

 

　　缺乏透明度可能是第一個(gè)原因。各國(guó)政府應(yīng)該對(duì)公司開(kāi)展更多的盡職調(diào)查。例如，一些公司（包括中國(guó)的公司）盡管因?yàn)楦瘮?wèn)題被列入世界銀行的黑名單，但仍然參與了投資項(xiàng)目。這些黑名單可能有缺點(diǎn)，但也讓政府有機(jī)會(huì)選擇業(yè)績(jī)較好的公司。

 

　　The second reason is"tying".This is a policy used by many countries–including America,Japan and China-of requiring that loans or aid they give to other countries should go to a project that is built by their own companies.This type of securing"win-win"can be helpful to ensuring projects get done quickly and even avoid corruption.But tying can also create massive conflicts of interest,shifting the focus away from the poor people that the finance is meant to help.However,many countries–including the U.S.and Japan–are reluctant to stop tying.

 

　　第二個(gè)原因則是“搭售”。這是許多國(guó)家（包括美國(guó)、日本和中國(guó)）使用的一項(xiàng)政策，規(guī)定發(fā)放給其他國(guó)家的貸款須用在本國(guó)公司的承建項(xiàng)目上。這種政策雖然在工程建設(shè)速度和避免腐敗方面可以確保“雙贏”的局面，但也可能造成嚴(yán)重的利益沖突，而且不一定有利于貸款原本想要資助的窮人。但包括美國(guó)和日本在內(nèi)的許多國(guó)家都不愿意停止這種政策。

 

　　The first Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation was held in Beijing in May 2017./VCG Photo

 

　　That said,through its most recent Foreign Investment Law,China has made a landmark move by opening up domestic government procurement to foreign firms.Hopefully this principle will also be applied to projects supported by China abroad and thereby"untie"them.

 

　　而通過(guò)最近頒布的《外商投資法》，中國(guó)向外國(guó)公司開(kāi)放國(guó)內(nèi)政府采購(gòu)，這是一項(xiàng)具有里程碑意義的舉措。希望這一原則也能適用于中國(guó)在海外支持的項(xiàng)目。

 

　　The third and final reason why the most productive projects may not be picked is a lack of leadership.Governments need to work much harder to prioritize the most sustainable and green projects that their citizens need and in a manner they want-including using local companies,local materials and local labor.

 

　　高效基建項(xiàng)目不被投資的第三個(gè)原因是缺乏領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力。各國(guó)政府需要加倍努力，優(yōu)先開(kāi)展本國(guó)人民所需的、最具經(jīng)濟(jì)前景和環(huán)保價(jià)值的項(xiàng)目，并自主選擇項(xiàng)目的開(kāi)展方式，包括發(fā)揮當(dāng)?shù)仄髽I(yè)的作用，利用當(dāng)?shù)卦牧虾蛣趧?dòng)力。

 

　　As the 2nd belt and road forum takes place here in Beijing,my hope is that the discussion about debt in poor countries will be less about debt from China or the amount,but more about better debt from everyone.Indeed,China's offer of 100bn U.S.dollars a year is less than 10 percent of the total infrastructure gap for poor countries around the world.Poor countries will still have to look beyond China.

 

　　第二屆一帶一路峰會(huì)召開(kāi)在即，我希望針對(duì)窮國(guó)債務(wù)問(wèn)題的討論不再集中于減少?gòu)闹袊?guó)或其他國(guó)家借貸這一話題，而是更多地關(guān)注優(yōu)質(zhì)債務(wù)的獲取。事實(shí)上，中國(guó)的“一帶一路”倡議每年提供的1000億美元資金只占全球最貧窮國(guó)家每年所面臨的缺口的大約10%。所以，貧窮國(guó)家仍然需要從中國(guó)以外的地區(qū)尋求資金。

 

　　With the BRI,and new global funds like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank,Americas new infrastructure fund called BUILD,and a new infrastructure facility for the Pacific from Australia,there is a great opportunity ahead for everyone.

 

　　中國(guó)提出了“一帶一路”倡議，新的全球基金也紛至沓來(lái)，例如亞洲基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資銀行，美國(guó)的BUILD基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施基金，以及澳大利亞為太平洋地區(qū)提供的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)基金。這些將為所有國(guó)家?guī)?lái)巨大機(jī)遇。

 

　　Let's not be as cautious as my parents told me to be.The world will not be able to meet the UN's Sustainable Development Goals unless poor countries get more cheap loans.But like the loans that my husband and I took out to fund our future,let's work hard to make sure the debt is productive as quickly as possible.

 

　　我們不必像我父母教我的那樣謹(jǐn)小慎微。如果貧窮國(guó)家無(wú)法獲得更多的低息貸款，聯(lián)合國(guó)可持續(xù)發(fā)展目標(biāo)就無(wú)法實(shí)現(xiàn)。但是，正如我和我丈夫?yàn)槲覀兊奈磥?lái)貸款一樣，讓我們共同努力，確保債務(wù)盡快轉(zhuǎn)化為生產(chǎn)力。